01What is an Avalanche Forecast?
Avalanche forecasts are daily assessments produced by professional forecasters. They synthesize weather data, snowpack observations, and recent avalanche activity to predict conditions for the coming day(s). Modern forecasts go beyond a danger rating — they identify specific avalanche problems, describe where hazards exist (elevation and aspect), and help you make terrain decisions.
02The Danger Scale
The scale rates danger from 1 (Low) to 5 (Extreme).
- 1 - Low: Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely
- 2 - Moderate: Human-triggered avalanches possible on specific features
- 3 - Considerable: Human-triggered avalanches likely; cautious route-finding essential
- 4 - High: Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended
- 5 - Extreme: Avoid all avalanche terrain
Most avalanche fatalities occur on days rated Considerable (3) — people still go out and misjudge the hazard. A low rating does not mean zero risk.
03Avalanche Problems
Forecasts identify specific patterns of instability:
- Storm Slab: new snow bonding poorly; short-lived (hours-days)
- Wind Slab: wind-transported snow on lee slopes; watch for pillows and shooting cracks
- Persistent Slab: slab over a persistent weak layer; can last weeks-months and feel deceptively stable
- Deep Slab: large avalanches breaking deep; low probability, enormous consequence
- Wet Avalanches: water weakening bonds; travel early on frozen conditions
- Loose Snow: point-release sluffs; dangerous in terrain traps
- Cornice Fall: overhanging snow collapsing, often triggering the slope below
Compare the five avalanche problems
Typical terrain / timing: All aspects, during & after snowfall
Reactive and widespread during the storm window, but consistent and fast-healing — the problem that rewards patience.
Manage it: Wait 24–48 h after heavy snow; avoid steep, unsupported terrain during loading; re-test bonding to the old surface before committing.
Fingerprint scores (0–5) are illustrative teaching values, not measurements. Read your local bulletin for the active problem. Educational only.
04Elevation Bands & Aspects
Forecasts divide terrain into below treeline, near treeline, and above treeline — danger and problems often vary with elevation, so check all three.
They also specify aspects of concern (compass directions). Aspect matters because of sun exposure (south warms faster → wet problems; north stays cold → persistent problems) and wind loading (lee slopes collect wind-transported snow). Match the aspect rose to your planned route.
The danger rotates around the compass
Mid-winter, persistent slab (cold N/E): Faceted persistent weak layers preserved on cold, shaded N/NE/E aspects; sunny S/SW have shed or healed and read lowest. Danger is present all day — this is a terrain-avoidance problem, not a timing one.
Relative danger on a 0–5 scale, N at top.
Illustrative aspect rose — the danger concentrates on specific slope orientations. Always read your local bulletin’s actual aspect/elevation rose. Educational only.
05Likelihood and Size
Likelihood: Unlikely → Possible → Likely → Very Likely/Certain.
Size (destructive potential): D1 (relatively harmless) → D2 (could bury/injure/kill) → D3 (destroy a car) → D4 (destroy a building) → D5 (largest known).
Risk = Likelihood × Size × Consequences. Even an unlikely avalanche can be fatal when the consequences are deadly.
06Applying Forecasts to Your Plans
- Read the full forecast — not just the rating. Understand the problems, elevation bands, aspects, and confidence.
- Match it to your route — the elevations, aspects, and slope angles you will travel.
- Make a plan — avoid problematic elevations/aspects, identify safe zones, set decision points, prepare a Plan B/C.
- Observe and reassess in the field — does the snowpack match the forecast? Any red flags or activity?
Each problem hides on different slopes
Manage it: Wind has loaded the lee NE–E–SE slopes above treeline — find the smooth pillows under cornices and walk around them; the windward ridge two metres away can be bare.
Illustrative terrain signatures (8 aspects × 3 elevation bands). Real avoid-zones come from your local bulletin’s aspect/elevation rose, not this teaching model. Educational only.
07Regional Avalanche Centers
North America: avalanche.org (links to all centers), NWAC (nwac.us), CAIC (avalanche.state.co.us), Utah (utahavalanchecenter.org), Avalanche Canada (avalanche.ca).
Europe: EAWS (avalanches.org), Météo France, SLF/WhiteRisk (Switzerland), avalanche.report (Tyrol/South Tyrol/Trentino).
08Common Mistakes
- Rating shopping: looking for a low rating to justify your plan
- Ignoring aspects/elevations: focusing only on the number
- Overconfidence at Moderate: most accidents happen at Moderate/Considerable
- Not reading the discussion: missing the reasoning
- Assuming uniformity: local conditions vary from the regional forecast
- Using yesterday’s forecast